CORN on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed down on Monday.  The DEC’07 contract finished at $3.774/bu, off 2.0¢/bu and 1.6¢/bu lower than last Monday.  MAR’08 futures finished down 2.0¢/bu at $3.944 and also 1.6¢/bu lower than a week ago.  The DEC’08 contract finished at $4.210/bu, 3.2¢/bu lower than last close and 3.4¢/bu lower than last week at this time.  Profit taking and spillover selling put the pressure on prices.  Exports were supportive.  South Korea bought 385,000 tonnes (15.2 mi bu) of U.S. corn.  Morocco sought 70,000 tonnes (2.8 mi bu) of non-origin specific corn.  USDA placed corn inspected for export at 52.287 mi bu vs. an expected range of between 42-48 mi bu.  Weather is cooperating with harvest clean up.  The CFTC Commitment of Traders report as of November 13 showed funds decreasing bull positions in CBOT corn by 5,700 lots to 153,280 contracts.  It might be wise to hold at 30% of the ‘08 crop priced.   This market is still very volatile.

SOYBEAN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed down on Monday in sympathy to corn.  The JAN’08 contract finished at $10.704/bu off 7.2¢/bu but 24.2¢/bu higher than last Monday.  NOV’08 soybean futures ended at $10.164/bu, down 0.4¢/bu but 34.4¢/bu higher than a week ago.  Profit taking took over after the soybean market posted overnight highs not seen in 19 years.  Soybeans are still in competition for more acres next year as U.S. ending stocks seem to be headed below 100 mi bu.  Are soybeans headed for $20.00/bu?  The answer is … could be if this bidding war over acres continues.   China bought 221,000 tonnes (8.1 mi bu) of U.S. soybeans for a ‘07/’08 delivery date.  USDA put the number of soybeans inspected for export at 23.566 mi bu, below expectations for between 25-30 mi bu.  Wet weather in Brazil was supportive as it is hampering planting enough to cause some replanting in many areas.  Good harvest weather is forecast for the U.S. soybean crop.  Even though funds sold 3,000 lots, the CFTC Commitment of Traders report had funds growing bullish positions in CBOT soybeans by 5,200 contracts to 131, 013 lots.  The ’07 crop should be sold while holding off pricing anymore of the ’08 crop.

WHEAT futures in Chicago (CBOT) closed up on Monday.  DEC’07 wheat futures closed 6.6¢/bu higher at $7.562/bu but 4.8¢/bu lower than a week ago.  The JULY’08 contract closed at $6.790/bu, up 13.6¢/bu and 3.0¢/bu higher than last Monday.  Short covering pressured prices while weather was supportive.  Traders were thinking that USDA will lower its crop rating.  Also supportive was news of Pakistani sales, frost threatening the Argentina crop, and rumors of higher Russian export tariffs.  Pakistan bought 150,000 tonnes (5.5 mi bu) of U.S. soft white wheat.  India is seeking bids for a 350,000 tonne (12.9 mi bu) tender made last week.  USDA placed wheat inspected for export at 23.948 mi bu, within an expected range of 20-25 mi bu.  Dry weather is still concerning many in the southern U.S. Plains while light rain this week did show some promise for the crop.  Funds bought 2,000 lots while the supplement to Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report saw funds growing net bear positions in CBOT wheat by 2,700 contracts to 18,567 lots.  Producers should have sold all ’07 wheat stocks by now.  It might be a good idea to hold off pricing any more of the ’08 crop at this time.

LIVE CATTLE futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) closed down on Monday with the exception of the APR’08LC contract which gained $0.150/cwt on the day.  DEC’07LC futures finished off $0.125/cwt at $95.175/cwt but $0.075/cwt higher than a week ago.  The FEB’08LC contract closed at $97.400/cwt, down $0.50/cwt and $0.55/cwt lower than last Monday.  Short covering cut losses in late trading.   Last Friday USDA showed October marketings at 106% of last year while most estimates expected around 107.4%.   A larger number of heavier cattle in October placements, 112% of last year, came in around expectations.  The 800-lb and up group of cattle came in 23.1% higher than last year causing most of those cattle to be market ready just after the start of the year.  This and December/February spreading caused most of the selling, according to a couple of floor sources in Chicago.  Bearish influences on the market were the expectations of the planned opening of the U.S./Canadian border to a broader age-range of cattle.  Meat from animals has been more limited until now.  Hedge lifting was supportive in early trading.  USDA’s cash cattle figures for the 5-area-average as of last Friday were placed at $92.68/cwt - $92.83/cwt.  Monday cash auctions in the Texas/Oklahoma area were steady to $1/cwt higher.  First thing Monday, USDA put the choice boxed beef cutout at $145.44/cwt, up $1.37/cwt.  The average beef plant margin for Monday was estimated at a negative $30.95/head, $2.60/head better than last Friday and $26.55/head better off than last week at this time, according to HedgersEdge.com.  Cash sellers should push market-ready cattle out of the door.  It might be a good idea to price some short term corn supplies in the next few days.

FEEDER CATTLE contracts at the CME were off on Monday.  NOV’07FC futures closed at $108.660/cwt, $0.190/cwt lower than last Friday but $0.235/cwt higher than last Monday.  The JAN’08FC contract showed signs of strengthening finishing at $108.825/cwt, off $0.300/cwt and $0.150/cwt lower than a week ago.  Trading was light all day while the premium to the index weighed on prices.  Lower live cattle didn’t help.  Short covering late in the day provided some support.  The latest CME Feeder Cattle Index for November 15 was placed at $108.66/cwt, up $0.100/cwt.  Feeder sellers ought to consider holding off more cattle sales while pricing some feed for the short run.

LEAN HOGS on the CME closed mixed.  DEC’07LH futures closed down $0.525/cwt at $52.000/cwt and $0.55/cwt lower than last Monday.  FEB’08LH futures were down $0.200/cwt at $60.200/cwt but $0.900/cwt higher than a week ago.  MAY’08LH and OCT’08LH posted gains.  Lower cash hogs caused by the large number of hogs offered for sale pressured prices and rode chart-based selling in many contracts.  Short covering late in the day cut losses.  February/December spreading was noted.  Hog supplies still remain way too large and are expected to pressure the market well into next year.  USDA on Friday put the pork carcass cutout at $58.05/cwt, down $0.42/cwt.  The CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.17/cwt at $48.80/cwt.  Cash sellers should push market-ready hogs out of the door.  It might be a good idea to price some short-term feed needs early this week.

Download Roberts in PDF format

Remember, when working with futures, risk is involved. Past performance does not indicate a promise of future results.

Visit Virginia Cooperative Extension